1. 检查结论

2. 金币产耗统计

整体口径下，金币产出 36,991,911，消耗 23,968,700，净流入 13,023,211，产耗比 1.54。其中副本和每日任务合计产出 16,091,777，占全部产出约 43.5%；复活消耗占全部消耗约 92.7%。

2.1 消耗高度集中在复活

金币消耗几乎就是副本内复活/继续尝试。这个结构本身是合理的；问题不是“缺少其他消耗口”，而是前中期产出节奏与失败/复活压力没有匹配好。

2.2 分关卡段判断：不是全局过剩

3. 削金币对付费率和 1→2 复购的影响

3.1 整体付费率：削金币效果待观察

当前窗口内注册角色约 7,261，付费角色 218，窗口付费率约 3.0%。首购品类里，免广告 90 人、新手礼包 69 人，金币/金猪类 27 人。也就是说，首次付费并不主要由“金币不够”单独驱动，更多是免广告权益、新手礼包性价比、前期看到的商品入口和关卡压力共同作用。

因此，削金币对整体付费率的影响应判断为：可能改善边际玩家的付费动机，但效果上限有限，且过早/过猛削减会伤害留存和免广告购买意愿。如果目标是提高整体付费率，需要同步看关键关卡失败压力、复活需求、礼包承接、价格点和活动节奏，而不能只改金币产出。

3.2 1→2 复购：更可能被定向减产改善

后台数据支持“当前复购率问题主要在第一次到第二次”：1→2 为 44.5%，2→3 为 64.9%，3→4 为 76.2%。已经二购的玩家后续购买惯性明显更强。

• 二购时间很近：二购玩家中，首次到二次购买间隔 P50 为 15.1 小时，73 / 97 在 24 小时内完成，83 / 97 在 72 小时内完成。
• 二购推进也很近：首次到第二次购买推进关卡数 P50 为 20 关，P75 为 48 关。这意味着首次购买后的 20-50 关资源续航，是影响二购的关键窗口。
• 二购品类发生迁移：首购以免广告/新手礼包为主，二购中新手礼包、金币/金猪、通行证占比上升；这说明二购更接近“资源续航/推进能力补足”，比首购更容易受金币产出调节影响。

4. 配置与免广告：关键金币口径

这里只保留影响金币测算和后续配置调整的核心口径。副本胜利结算由星级基础金币、星级广告额外金币、关卡倍率、任务与活动投放共同构成，不是单一固定金币。

5. 削减方案：按模块确认金币削减量

首轮目标不是把金币经济压到 1.0，而是把明显盈余段从“无压力积累”拉回“有推进需求但不挫败”。执行口径：全局有效减产约 12%-18%；L26-80 主线金币按 15%-25% 调整，每日任务直接金币和活动尾档按 20%-30% 调整。

6. 后续是否需要动态调整机制？

需要，待设计具体方案。

7. 激励广告现状

广告占收入约 85%，其中激励广告（rewarded）是可增长、且不打扰玩家的部分。当前激励位人均观看（D1 cohort）如下：

结论：激励广告人均 D1 约 1.48，D7 约 2.48，低于同类目标区间。最大激励位是 105 副本结算广告额外金币，占激励播放约 64%，直接和金币经济挂钩。

8. 三项目标与对应动作

三项目标需要拆开看：①提升激励广告播放，②提升购买率，③提升 1→2 复购。激励广告主要服务目标①，同时通过金币稀缺和关键压力点间接影响目标②③。

8.1 目标①：提升激励广告播放

8.2 目标②：提升购买率（最重要）

当前付费率约 3.0%，且首单不完全由金币门槛驱动。提升购买率需要同时制造需求和优化首单 offer：

• 制造金币 / 复活的真实需求：在中后段付费点小幅降低次数通关率，让金币更稀缺，使玩家在硬关缺金、缺复活、缺道具时产生首购动机。
• 痛点触发型礼包：按 R/N/S 节点推进礼包（关内救援 R、节点备战 N、补货 S），在失败、缺资源、连续尝试受阻时精准弹出。
• 降低首单门槛：新手礼包作为低价入口继续保留；限时折扣、广告折扣等首单钩子可以强化。
• 免广告不是唯一首选：当前免广告占首单大头，但它更像一次性权益。需要让更多首单转向消耗型商品（金币、道具、通行证），为后续复购铺路。

8.3 目标③：提升 1→2 复购

• 首购后 1-3 天承接第二单：多数二购发生在首购后 7 天内，重点做链式礼包、限时折扣、金猪储蓄等承接。
• 给免广告买家制造第二次需求：免广告买家后续仍需要在硬关面对复活、道具和金币压力，第二单应更多承接到消耗型商品。
• 复购前提仍是难度 + 金币稀缺：如果首购后资源续航过长，二购会被推迟；如果难度过高或金币过紧，则会伤留存。目标是在 L26-80 和首购后 24-72 小时窗口做平衡。

9. 修改清单

逐条列出待修改项。优先级：高 中 低；状态：待确认 = 需与发行方确认是否这样调，待讨论 = 内部数值 / 方案未定，需 A/B = 须实验验证。目标：①激励广告 ②购买率 ③复购。

1. Findings

2. Gold Production and Spend Statistics

In the overall view, gold produced is 36,991,911, gold spent is 23,968,700, net inflow is 13,023,211, and the production/spend ratio is 1.54. Mainline settlement plus daily tasks produce 16,091,777 gold, about 43.5% of all output. Revive spend accounts for about 92.7% of all gold spend.

2.1 Spend Is Highly Concentrated in Revives

Gold spend is almost entirely in-level revive or continue attempts. This structure is reasonable. The issue is not the lack of unrelated spend sinks; it is that early and mid-game inflow is not aligned with failure and revive pressure.

2.2 By Level Range: Not a Global Surplus

3. Impact on Payer Rate and 1→2 Repeat Purchase

3.1 Overall Payer Rate: Gold Cutting Impact Needs Observation

In the current window, there are about 7,261 registered roles and 218 paying roles, for a window payer rate of about 3.0%. First-purchase categories are led by No Ads with 90 users and starter bundles with 69 users; gold or piggy-bank style purchases account for 27 users. First purchase is therefore not driven only by insufficient gold. No Ads, starter bundle value, early shop/bundle entry visibility, and level pressure all contribute.

The impact of gold cutting on payer rate should be framed as: it may improve marginal purchase motivation, but the ceiling is limited, and an early or aggressive cut can hurt retention and No Ads purchase intent. If the goal is to raise overall payer conversion, gold output needs to be evaluated together with key-level pressure, revive demand, bundle positioning, price points, and activity pacing.

3.2 1→2 Repeat Purchase: More Likely to Improve From Targeted Cuts

Backend data supports the view that the main repeat-purchase problem is from the first to second purchase: 1→2 is 44.5%, 2→3 is 64.9%, and 3→4 is 76.2%. Once players make a second purchase, later purchase momentum is much stronger.

• Second purchase happens soon: Among second-purchase players, the P50 time from first to second purchase is 15.1 hours. 73 / 97 complete it within 24 hours and 83 / 97 within 72 hours.
• Progression between purchases is also short: The P50 level progress between first and second purchase is 20 levels, and P75 is 48 levels. The 20-50 levels after first purchase are the key resource-continuity window for second purchase.
• Purchase category shifts: First purchase is led by No Ads and starter bundles, while the second purchase has more starter bundles, gold/piggy-bank products, and Pass. This means second purchase is closer to resource continuity and progression support, and is more likely to react to gold-output tuning.

4. Config and No Ads: Key Gold Accounting

This section keeps only the configuration points that affect gold modeling and future tuning. Level victory settlement is built from star base gold, star-based ad extra gold, level multipliers, tasks, and activity distribution. It is not one fixed amount per level.

5. Tuning Plan: Confirm Gold Cuts by Module

The first-pass goal is not to force the economy to a 1.0 ratio. It is to move clear surplus ranges from no-pressure accumulation back into useful progression pressure without creating frustration. Working target: about 12%-18% effective total reduction. L26-80 mainline gold should be adjusted by 15%-25%, while daily task direct gold and activity tail rewards should be adjusted by 20%-30%.

6. Is a Dynamic Tuning Mechanism Needed?

Yes. The detailed design is still pending.

7. Rewarded Ad Status

Ads contribute about 85% of revenue. Rewarded ads are the scalable, non-disruptive part of the ad mix. Current average rewarded views per user in the D1 cohort are:

Read: Rewarded ads average about 1.48 views per user on D1 and about 2.48 on D7, which is below the target range for comparable games. The largest placement is slot 105, the level-settlement ad reward, contributing about 64% of rewarded views and directly tied to the gold economy.

8. Three Goals and Matching Actions

The three goals should be separated: ① increase rewarded ad views, ② increase payer conversion, and ③ improve 1→2 repeat purchase. Rewarded ads mainly serve goal ①, while gold scarcity and key pressure points indirectly affect goals ② and ③.

8.1 Goal ①: Increase Rewarded Ad Views

8.2 Goal ②: Increase Payer Conversion (Most Important)

The current payer rate is about 3.0%, and first purchase is not driven by gold gates alone. Raising payer conversion requires both real demand creation and first-offer optimization:

• Create real gold / revive demand: Slightly lower attempt pass rates at mid-to-late monetization points and make gold scarcer, so players encounter hard-level moments where they lack gold, revives, or items.
• Pain-point triggered bundles: Use R/N/S bundle triggers: in-level rescue R, node preparation N, and restock S. Show them when the player fails, lacks resources, or is blocked after repeated attempts.
• Lower the first-purchase threshold: Keep the starter bundle as the low-price entry point. Limited-time discounts and ad discount hooks can be strengthened.
• No Ads should not be the only first choice: No Ads currently takes a large share of first purchase, but it is closer to a one-time right. More first purchases should move toward consumable products such as gold, items, and Pass, creating a better repeat-purchase path.

8.3 Goal ③: Improve 1→2 Repeat Purchase

• Bridge the second purchase within 1-3 days after first purchase: Most second purchases happen within 7 days after the first purchase. The focus should be chained bundles, limited-time discounts, and piggy-bank savings.
• Create a second-purchase need for No Ads buyers: No Ads buyers should still encounter revive, item, and gold pressure on hard levels, so the second purchase can move into consumable products.
• The prerequisite is still difficulty plus gold scarcity: If post-first-purchase resources last too long, the second purchase is delayed. If difficulty or scarcity is too high, retention is hurt. The balance point is L26-80 and the 24-72 hour window after first purchase.

9. Change List

List all pending changes. Priority: High Mid Low; Status: Pending confirmation = needs publisher confirmation, To discuss = internal value/design not finalized, Needs A/B = must be validated by experiment. Goals: ① rewarded ads ② payer conversion ③ repeat purchase.